For example, if one does not know whether the newborn baby next door is a boy or a girl, the color of decorations on the crib in front of the door may support the hypothesis of one gender or the other; but if in front of that door, instead of the crib, a dog kennel is found, the posterior probability that the family next door gave birth to a dog remains small in spite of the "evidence", since one's prior belief in such a hypothesis was already extremely small.The critical point about Bayesian inference, then, is that it provides a principled way of combining new evidence with prior beliefs, through the application of Bayes' rule.: Anne Philippe, Marie-Anne Vibet, Philippe Lanos The topics of the workshop are Bayesian statistics and statistics applied to dating methods in archaeology, palaeoenvironment and geosciences.The sessions will be devoted to LOCATION : The conference will take place in Building 28 (room Amphi G) of the campus of the faculty of Sciences of Nantes University (map of the campus). All the lunches and the dinner which is proposed on May 25th will be taken in charge by the conference. Funded by the NERC, and used widely within professional archaeology as well as other disciplines, Ox Cal has also played a key role in research projects (within Oxford and beyond) brought to the attention of the general public by the media.Ox Cal was developed by Christopher Ramsey (Professor of Archaeological Science) at the ORAU, to help with the application of Bayesian statistical methods to the radiocarbon dating of archaeological material.Computationally, the model (estimate parameters) needs to be fitted using data that has been observed or measured.The first and simplest example of a statistical model comes in C age is derived from a measure of the 14C activity in the sample, assumed for most materials (the exception being aquatic or marine samples) to have been in equilibrium with the atmosphere at time of ‘life’.
The mathematical formulation of this conceptual description implies setting the corresponding equations, and defining the parameters (unknown quantities) that appear in these equations.
Building on statistical research by Cliff Litton and Caitlin Buck at the Division of Statistics, Nottingham University, Ramsey developed Ox Cal as a software tool which could be easily distributed to users world-wide, and the first version of Ox Cal was presented in 1994 at the 15 International Radiocarbon Conference, Glasgow, and freely distributed by disc.
Through the subsequent involvement of Ox Cal in other radiocarbon dating projects, Ramsey developed the software to allow greater flexibility in types of data that could be analysed, including more complex stratigraphical relationships [Section 3: R1; R2].
Throughout the contents of sections 1-5 above there is an implicit use of mathematical or statistical procedures to process, treat and visualise data in many different forms.
It is therefore desirable to make a few statements about these procedures that be conveniently under the general term of statistical modelling.